Geoeconomic Tensions Take Center Stage
Rising economic conflicts between major powers — including sanctions, tariffs, and other trade restrictions — are now considered the biggest threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2026 Global Risks Report. Released ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos next week, the report draws on the views of more than 1,300 leaders from business, government, academia, and civil society.
The study places geoeconomic confrontation above misinformation, social polarization, extreme weather, and armed conflict as the most pressing global risk. Half of respondents expect the world to be turbulent or stormy over the next two years, up sharply from 36% last year, while only 9% foresee stability and 1% expect calm. Looking further ahead, a majority predict prolonged instability over the next decade.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi called the report an early warning system, highlighting the compounded risks from economic friction, technological disruption, and rising global debt. “But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion,” she added, emphasizing that cooperation can still shape outcomes.
Economic Strains and a Fragmented Global Order
Geoeconomic tensions topped the rankings for both likelihood and severity over the next two years, with 18% of respondents identifying it as the most likely trigger for a global crisis. Rising rivalries threaten global supply chains, economic stability, and international cooperation, the report notes.
The report comes after a year of disruptive trade policies, including widespread US tariffs that unsettled global markets and increased costs for businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, 68% of respondents expect the international order to become more fragmented or multipolar over the next decade. Financial risks are also mounting: threats of economic downturns, inflation, and asset bubbles have all surged in the rankings, pointing to potential volatility in global markets.
Technology, Society, and the Long-Term Environmental Outlook
Other risks are also gaining attention. Misinformation and disinformation rank second in the short-term outlook, while concerns about artificial intelligence have climbed sharply in the long-term horizon, reflecting fears about its impact on jobs, security, and society. Societal polarization ranks among the top three risks for the coming years, and inequality continues to be a highly interconnected threat.
Environmental risks, while slightly lower in short-term rankings, dominate the long-term picture. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth’s systems top the 10-year outlook, with 75% of respondents expecting a turbulent environmental future.
Zahidi concluded that global cooperation remains essential to manage these intertwined risks. “The challenges highlighted in this report — spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks — underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next,” she said.
